|SPY May 1 2013|
The pullback we were thinking might happen around the all-time high happened roughly where we thought it might. For a market top, though, it was very muted, on average volume and without much fanfare. It also was smaller than some of the major sell-offs we've had during this rally. For those who think "This is it," the charts don't show that, so it would have to be confirmed. With all the chatter about "Sell in May and go away" this year, today, May 1, was the perfect day for gamers to induce a sell-off that was sure to hearten Bears and frighten just about everyone else.
We could very easily have more selling down to the lower trend line, particularly if the Europeans don't follow through with the rate decision. Needless to say, the vicinity of an all-time high is a very treacherous region, with plenty of opportunities for spikes in both directions..