Saturday, May 18, 2013

WIN, May 19 2013

Windstream Corporation (WIN) NasdaqGS

WIN shows a decided bias to the downside on the monthly chart. It looks very much like a falling knife.

The weekly WIN chart shows an accelerating downtrend. Clearly, it is a race to the bottom with this stock, with no relief at any point so far.

The daily chart shows a descending triangle. This is a downtrend continuation pattern. If all holds to form, eventually the support will break, and WIN will see new lows.

The likeliest bottom is the May 2010 low of 6.02. Everybody sees that flashing like a beacon on the chart, which means it may never actually get there - and it if does, it either will be there only for a moment, or it won't hold.

All that said, it is clear why WIN is one of the most shorted stocks. However, is shorting WIN a good idea? It pays a huge dividend, which hasn't protected it, but that dividend inflicts huge pain on any shorts holding it when it goes ex-dividend. You likely will see a price jump around that date, followed by an even quicker slide back down. If you do short, circle that date on your calendar.

UAN May 19 2013

CVR Partners, LP (UAN)NYSE

UAN Monthly Chart in May 2013

The UAN monthly chart currently shows a giant coil. The bias overall has been upward, but with major swings to and fro.

UAN Weekly on May 19 2013

The UAN weekly chart again shows the coil, with price right in the middle. There doesn't seem to be much bias in either direction right now.

UAN Daily Chart May 19 2013

The indecision suggested by the longer-term charts is amplified in the UAN daily chart. One could read into this a giant bull flag, which would be a continuation pattern higher. However, more likely it simply is stuck in a trading range.

Note that this is a high-dividend stock suitable primarily for retirement accounts.

NS May 19 2013

NuStar Energy L.P. (NS)

NuStar Energy (NS) Monthly Chart

The NS monthly chart shows a higher low, off of which we have the current bounce. That is a Bullish sign going forward.

NS Weekly Chart

On the weekly chart, NS is wedging. It currently sits near the bottom trendline. The dominant pattern appears to be an inverse head and shoulders.

NS Daily Chart

On the daily chart, we see that the price sits just above the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders. It also is just above the lower trendline for the larger wedge pattern. Overall, both indicate either a move higher is approaching, or a major breakdown.

PGH May 19 2013

Pengrowth Energy PGH

PGH Monthly Chart
PGH Monthly as of May 2013

Looking first at the monthly chart,the things that leap out are: 1) PGH is down around where it bottome previously, after a long round-trip up to the teens; 2) it has a history of fierce bounces of of bottoms, once those bottoms clearly are in.

PGH Daily chart
PGH Weekly Chart, May 19 2013

Looking at the PGH weekly chart, it looks as if a wedge is forming as in a mature state. A breakout one way or another is in the offing.

PGH Daily Chart
PGH Daily May 19 2013

Finally, looking at the daily, an interesting inverse head and shoulders pattern appears to be forming. In conjunction with the wedge pattern, this gives a slight edge to the idea that the breakout, when it comes, may be to the upside.

PGH pays a big dividend and is a speculative Canadian energy company. It fits well into a retirement account, and there is a DRIP with a 5% discount if you choose to sign up for it and get paid in shares rather than cash. It is a Keystone Pipleine play, as costs of transport eventually would go down if that pipeline were approved and built.

This is a play for bottom fishers only - you know who you are.

Friday, May 17, 2013

SPY May 17 2013

SPY May 17 2013

Market shrugged off some very mild weakness on Thursday that, as usual, just invited in a wave of buying. There evidently is a great deal of money sitting on the sidelines, waiting for any kind of pullback to justify putting it into the market. The technicals are all looking about as good as they have throughout this rally, and there is no evidence of over-extension or buyer exhaustion.

Note that the top of the old channel has been breached, and that breach was confirmed today. This leads to a new, more parabolic channel forming. This is Bullish, but the risks of course increase as the upward move loses restraint. A blow-off top is coming, but it isn't here yet. Trying to anticipate it is fine, but don't get so wrapped up in what eventually must come that you forget to reap profits when the reaping is good. That would be like not going to sleep because you know the dawn eventually will come. All things in their proper time.

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

SAN May 15 2013

SAN May 15 2013

SAN pulled back after its assault on the 200-day moving average. This really isn't a momentum stock, it's more of a long-term play. As long as SAN stays in the channel plotted in the chart, all is well and you look at pullbacks as buying opportunities.

SPY May 15 2013

SPY May 15 2013

Everything is proceeding nicely as previously projected. Look at my previous charts of the SPY for more insight. The 1700 region remains our target on this surge, but anything can happen. We deal in probabilities, if you want certainty of money going in a certain direction, go work on your taxes.

If you let a bad day or two shake you out, you will likely regret it, but everyone has to make their own decisions. Also, watching this too closely and acting emotionally will get you whipsawed. Make a decision on direction, and live with it. A top will happen - I guarantee it - but good luck trying to guess where it will be.

So far, there are absolutely no signs of a topping pattern. You look for over-extension, failure, lower highs, that sort of thing. Nothing so far. Just getting worried about how "high" the averages are getting is not a strategy. Same thing with saying to yourself "this can't last." It can, at least for now.