Monday, June 10, 2013

SPY June 10, 2013

SPY June 10 2013

June 10 2013 was a choppy, consolidation day. The only difference between this choppy day and similar such days last month was that the S&P 500 ended slightly down rather than slightly up, but you have to expect something like that after an uninterrupted 40-point run.

The average closed dead center in  the middle of the channel - and that's not an exaggeration. Below I have posted two Futures charts with Fibonacci Retracements from the all-time high to the recent low just below 1600. Note that today we came to rest right on the 50% retracement line. Those Robots sure know their figures!

S&P 500 E-mini Futures June 10 2013

Incidentally, some folks are talking about the SPY being in some kind of grand downtrend from the all-time high. I don't see it. We may be in a long-term downtrend - but the evidence really isn't there yet. I drew the downtrend line on the chart, but it just doesn't look meaningful to me, and I have a very open mind, believe it or not.

Below is a close-up of the Futures, with the same 50% line shown, on the 5 minute chart. The S&P 500 literally closed within a point of it. Isn't that something? What it tells me is that the next move is critical - a move down and we just saw an oversold bounce. A move up and we continue the grand uptrend. Either way, the long-term uptrend remains intact unless we breach 1600 and keep on going.

Close-up of S&P 500 E-mini Futures June 10 2013

No reason to risk anything major until the market gives us some guidance, maybe tomorrow, or maybe later if the choppiness continues. That the Nikkei 225 is showing the first signs of stabilizing after its recent crash is a good sign for the entire world of equities.

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