TheSlayer's Market Thoughts

SPY June 25 2013

SPY had some mild early weakness, then turned around and did a slow grind higher for the balance of the day. Much of the morning was spent shuttling around in the 1570s, while the afternoon was spent almost exclusively in the 1580s. A pullback ended the proceedings, leaving closing prices very close to those at the open.

It was a digestion day, that is, digesting the recent losses. SPY remained in the downtrend channel, getting a weak technical bounce off the lower channel line. The day's overall pattern formed an indecisive Doji.

Merely because there was no major selling did not make the day Bullish, though not surrendering even more ground was a sort of victory for the Bulls. In this type of volatility, anything can happen from this point. The slow grind higher during the afternoon was not very impressive, and the fact that those gains were lost by the close also was a sign that the sellers remain, biding their time.

Not looking for much for the rest of the week, and not expecting much from window-dressing, either. Some weakness before the July 4 holiday would not be unusual. If this were the chart of a stock, it wouldn't be worth buying. At best, we can play the downward-sloping channel, but in general, this is a market of action/reaction by short-term money rather than a trending market. As such, it is extremely difficult to trade until some theme develops.